OneAndOneIs2

Sun released the first GPL'd code for Java today, as promised.

As expected (by me, at least), it's GPL v2. Not "Two or above", just two. Of course, they do have the option of re-releasing it as GPL v3 later, but if any large-scale community work gets done on a fork, that fork can only be GPL v2.

Sadly, I do expect such a fork to happen: Because getting your code put into the official Sun Java means giving them your code, to do with as they please, I suspect many devs will prefer a fork, just so they know their code won't wind up running on, say, a closed-source Microsoft project. . .

The exact wording of the license, by the way, is:

You hereby assign to Sun joint ownership in all worldwide common law and statutory rights associated with the copyrights, copyright applications and copyright registrations in Your contribution, and to the extent allowable under applicable local laws and copyright conventions, You agree never to assert against Sun or its licensees or transferees any moral rights therein. You understand that (i) this Agreement may be submitted by Sun to register a copyright in Your Contribution, and (ii) Sun may exercise all rights as a copyright owner of Your Contribution, including enforcement against infringers.

Ah well. Java's open-source and can be supplied with Linux distros from now on, and that's a good thing however the actual open-source process falls out.

When GPL v3 comes out, it'll be interesting to see (a) If Solaris is released under v3, and (b) If the GNU tools will be forked to remain under v2

I expect both to happen. Sun is at least willing to consider GPL v3, and they might see it as a way of getting more users: FS-notables such as PJ at Groklaw have already said if Solaris goes v3 and Linux stays v2, she'll switch to Solaris.

And we know that the GPL v3 has been specifically re-written to shaft Novell and their deal with MS. Suse is a big distro, it needs the GNU tools, and it can't go to v3: Novell, at least, will have no choice but to maintain a v2-version of the GNU tools. I suspect a number of others will do so.

I'm not alone in predicting a fork of the Linux community itself - the Free and Open-Source communities will split. The Frees will go to a GPL-3'd Gnu/Solaris; the Open-Sourcers will stick with Linux and GPL v2.

What will happen then? Well, OpenSolaris as the NKOTB will need to attract new members and developers. This could be tricky: Linux supports more hardware than any other OS, bar none. Regardless of the nonsense MS fans spout about drivers, Linux supports far more hardware than Windows. It also supported a lot of it long before Windows did: USB 2 and Bluetooth being notable examples.

More, it can boast some of the best hardware support: Benchmarks for USB 2, for instance, show faster bus speeds under Linux than under any other OS. And it has a mature development process with a community of experienced, knowledgeable devs.

In contrast, a GPL'd Solaris has (overall) inferior hardware support and a lot of the development process will be made up as it goes along: All it really has to offer in return for these inconveniences is a license that is slightly more ethical (according to some people).

Since that same license limits what can be done with the software, I can't see it getting much support from industry, which will contrast sharply with the billions invested in Linux every year these days. No help there. Okay, it'll have Sun backing it, but Sun doesn't "get" OS very well yet - the development of OpenOffice makes that pretty clear (Even Wikipedia notes "getting external contributions into the core codebase is generally regarded as being more difficult than with other high-profile free software projects")

It appears that there's no problem with distributing GPL v2 and GPL v3 software together, so Linux end-users will remain largely unaffected. Thus getting people to switch to the "ethically superior" GPL v3 option of GNU/Solaris will be a really hard sell: Linux will still be able to use GPL v3 apps, but Solaris won't be able to use Linux's code for drivers etc.

All-in-all, I still maintain that GPL v3 will struggle: As MS has found with Windows, it's tough to compete with your widely-used predecessor, especially when your new offering is complicated and unfamiliar.

MS can force upgrades through new proprietary features and support, and by making it hard to buy hardware with anything but their new product on offer. The GPL v3 has no such option, and must compete solely on merit.

FS vs OSS: The showdown we've all been waiting for. Watch it live in 2007 :o)